8.9 Earthquake hits Japan

[Gas Man]

Originally Posted by Trip

They are being tight lipped about info. Our NRC boys are going out there to help. I think we will find out about a lot of human errors once this is all said and done. This may be the end of any new nuke plans we had going forward.

Then that would be sad.

I don't see "alternative" sources of energy like sun & wind producing enough. So that leaves you with coal? Or coke burn which will just push up the price of crude oil.

[tommymac]

Originally Posted by Trip

They are being tight lipped about info. Our NRC boys are going out there to help. I think we will find out about a lot of human errors once this is all said and done. This may be the end of any new nuke plans we had going forward.

Do you think thats more of a knee jerk reaction to all this or theres more credibility that we shouldnt build mor enuclear plants?

[Trip]

Originally Posted by tommymac

Do you think thats more of a knee jerk reaction to all this or theres more credibility that we shouldnt build mor enuclear plants?

knee jerk reactions. The jap plant two very very significant natural disasters that were both over it's design criteria. No one planned for that level of an event.

[tommymac]

Originally Posted by Trip

knee jerk reactions. The jap plant two very very significant natural disasters that were both over it's design criteria. No one planned for that level of an event.

Thats kinda what I figured, its not like we have 8.9 earthquakes and 30 ft tsunamis every day, and considering japan is on a major fault line these things should be factored in somehow.

[Gas Man]

Originally Posted by Trip

knee jerk reactions. The jap plant two very very significant natural disasters that were both over it's design criteria. No one planned for that level of an event.

But I bet you have a "extreme case" event plan.

[Trip]

Originally Posted by Gas Man

But I bet you have a "extreme case" event plan.

Yes, but not on the level of what happened in Japan. We are built for a 5.something earthquake.

[Papa_Complex]

Originally Posted by Trip

They are being tight lipped about info. Our NRC boys are going out there to help. I think we will find out about a lot of human errors once this is all said and done. This may be the end of any new nuke plans we had going forward.

Odds are that the "human errors" will involve dead humans not being able to do certain things. From the sounds of it, going in, the tsunami eliminated much of the equipment necessary to get the reactions under control.

Up here, one of our opposition parties is pushing for more studies and delays on plans to build two new nuclear power plants, because of the issues in Japan. Our CANDU reactors are built to take something like a 6.8 quake, when all that we've seen here is hundreds of times weaker. They use unenriched uranium fuel. The fuel rods are horizontal, rather than the vertical orientation that seems common in other reactors. As a moderator and certain separation of rods is required for sustained reaction this means that if a high temperature run-away situation occurs the rods will tend to slump, which will naturally slow or even halt the reaction.

They're obviously playing politics, as many of the issues raised are non-issues for us.

[goof2]

Originally Posted by Trip

They are being tight lipped about info. Our NRC boys are going out there to help. I think we will find out about a lot of human errors once this is all said and done. This may be the end of any new nuke plans we had going forward.

I'm not an engineer but I do have a casual interest (reading and watching TV) in engineering disasters. To me the most common trait shared by massive failures of complex systems with lots of redundancy is lots of errors, most innocuous, compounding to create a "this can't happen" outcome. Another common theme seems to be people getting in over their heads, but refusing to recognize that while it can still make a difference. My guess is we will see both those issues are key components in the eventual failure analysis.

Yeah, our nuke plans would have been difficult and expensive before. I think we can mark this disaster as the day those nuke plans died.

Originally Posted by goof2

Oh and about the reactor issues they are having in Japan, I am a bit concerned the Japanese aren't sharing the whole story. With the way their culture is they can make the Iraqi Information Minister (remember him?) look like the paragon of honesty. There could be a massive mushroom cloud (hyperbole on my part) in the background while a spokesman is saying it is a minor fluctuation that should be contained very soon.

I haven't seen anyone put a story up about it, but from the way they were talking about the company that operates this plant on CNN last night I fear my concerns may have been justified.

[CasterTroy]

Originally Posted by goof2

I'm not an engineer

I am....and hold on before you think I'm pounding on my chest. Despite what people THINK...engineers get paid SQUAT and work for fee's that (on paper) have you losing twice the money you make every year.

How do you break even? 16hr days

Fee's (you would think) should go up exponentially every year due to cost of living, inflation, general economy, yet in the last 12 years our fee's have remained the same, and generally get CUT by 1/3 if we want the job

I say all that to comment on THIS:

Originally Posted by goof2

To me the most common trait shared by massive failures of complex systems with lots of redundancy is lots of errors, most innocuous, compounding to create a "this can't happen" outcome. Another common theme seems to be people getting in over their heads, but refusing to recognize that while it can still make a difference.

Now I haven't EVER done a nuclear facility, but I work with the government every day. Military bases, schools, federal facilites. And every SINGLE one is done with the most ABSOLUTE cheapest possible solution. (PM&E anyway)

Ideal: VAV boxes, hot gas reheat, 4 pipe systems.

What they end up GETTING? : 2-pipe systems and DX split systems out the ass

Not sure if Japan's Gov operates on the same trim and slim budget, but I for one am tired as hell of seeing the lowest bid get the work and settling for sub-par crap when we NEED to be designing the BEST system for the money.

This goes for HVAC & Plumbing (which is my specialty) or friggin nuclear plants, teachers, IRS workers.....what-the-hell ever.

So in response, I'm not saying you're WRONG, I'm saying that it's probably more likely DOLLAR (or Yen) driven more than it is design flaw. I'd almost bet there is paperwork where SOMEONE said "Oh yeah, it could happen, and we've designed for it" then some penny pincher came in and slashed the budget and told them to design around that penny on the floor.

Sorry...rant over

[goof2]

Originally Posted by CasterTroy

I am....and hold on before you think I'm pounding on my chest. Despite what people THINK...engineers get paid SQUAT and work for fee's that (on paper) have you losing twice the money you make every year.

How do you break even? 16hr days

Fee's (you would think) should go up exponentially every year due to cost of living, inflation, general economy, yet in the last 12 years our fee's have remained the same, and generally get CUT by 1/3 if we want the job

I say all that to comment on THIS:


Now I haven't EVER done a nuclear facility, but I work with the government every day. Military bases, schools, federal facilites. And every SINGLE one is done with the most ABSOLUTE cheapest possible solution. (PM&E anyway)

Ideal: VAV boxes, hot gas reheat, 4 pipe systems.

What they end up GETTING? : 2-pipe systems and DX split systems out the ass

Not sure if Japan's Gov operates on the same trim and slim budget, but I for one am tired as hell of seeing the lowest bid get the work and settling for sub-par crap when we NEED to be designing the BEST system for the money.

This goes for HVAC & Plumbing (which is my specialty) or friggin nuclear plants, teachers, IRS workers.....what-the-hell ever.

So in response, I'm not saying you're WRONG, I'm saying that it's probably more likely DOLLAR (or Yen) driven more than it is design flaw. I'd almost bet there is paperwork where SOMEONE said "Oh yeah, it could happen, and we've designed for it" then some penny pincher came in and slashed the budget and told them to design around that penny on the floor.

Sorry...rant over

I'm not saying this crisis has been driven by design flaws, regardless of whether they were created through lack of thought or lack of money, though I'm sure they will be a factor. From my admittedly limited knowledge I'm much more likely to think it was compounding operational errors, rather than design flaws, that has allowed this problem to get so wildly out of control.

If my understanding of the accident at Chernobyl is correct it serves as a good example. Yes, in order to save money, time, whatever that reactor didn't have a containment vessel designed to prevent the release of radiation in case of a meltdown (storing spent fuel rods outside the containment vessel at the Japanese reactors may prove to have been a similar mistake). In order for the lack of a containment vessel to become a problem though it took days worth of operational errors, terrible decision making, institutional arrogance, and terrible training compounding upon itself. Of course it is with the benefit of hindsight, but looking at a timeline of Chernobyl it seems as if one or two more good decisions at almost any point could have prevented the meltdown in the first place.